The 5.5% Mirage: Why Prediction Markets Are Not Macro Compasses
A single data point surfaces from the noise: a 5.5% probability of US declari...
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Extreme Fear
Market Sentiment
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
92 million ARB released
Block reward halving event
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
Team and early investor shares released
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
Bitcoin Season
| # | Coin | Price |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bitcoin
BTC
|
$64,078.7 |
| 1 |
Ethereum
ETH
|
$1,841.42 |
| 1 |
Solana
SOL
|
$74.74 |
| 1 |
BNB Chain
BNB
|
$570.2 |
| 1 |
XRP Ledger
XRP
|
$1.09 |
| 1 |
Dogecoin
DOGE
|
$0.0722 |
| 1 |
Cardano
ADA
|
$0.1647 |
| 1 |
Avalanche
AVAX
|
$6.55 |
| 1 |
Polkadot
DOT
|
$0.8367 |
| 1 |
Chainlink
LINK
|
$8.27 |